The Environmental Issues and Forecasting Threshold of Income and Pollution Emissions in Iran Economy


Volume 2, Issue 2, Number 4, Pages 62-77, Published Online April 20, 2014

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Hadi Esmaeilpour Moghadam , Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour


Undesirable environmental changes such as global warming and rising greenhouse gases emissions has created much concerns in the worldwide during recent decades. Environmental problems have become a polemical issue to achieve higher economic growth rate. In this research, the effects of financial development and trade are tested on environmental quality. So the shape of Environmental Kuznets Curve is examined by using the data during the period of 1970-2011 and Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag (ARDL) for Iran. Then the threshold of income and environmental emission have predicted. The results show that financial development increase the degradation of the environment and the increase in trade openness reduce the degradation of the environment and Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is approved in Iran. Also, the amount of environmental emission will reach to 623 million tons which the threshold of income is 343 milliard dollars.


Environmental Emissions,Threshold Income, Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag (ARDL).


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